U.S. Air Taxis May First Take Off Abroad

Since even before the Wright Brothers, there have been attempts—some with modest success—to build a flying car. Although a practical road, and airworthy vehicle looks no more likely than a century ago, planes that do the job of taxi cars may arrive soon. And while the U.S. has been a leader in “flying car” efforts over the years, it may not be the first place where service takes flight.

Takeoff in the United Arab Emirates

Two of the world’s top air taxi companies—U.S.-based Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation—recently announced plans to launch electric plane services in the United Arab Emirates as soon as 2025. Both companies are active in the U.S., too. Archer is partnering with United Airlines for service in New York City, Los Angeles, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Joby and Delta Airlines are also targeting New York and LA. However, the UAE may come first, thanks to generous funding and regulatory flexibility.

In February, Joby announced several deals, including an agreement with Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority that Joby says will provide it a six-year monopoly in the UAE’s biggest city. (Archer disputes this and says it will be able to operate in Dubai and any other emirate anytime.) Joby also signed a deal with a company called Skyports to build four helipads, or “vertiports,” in the city.

 “The infrastructure piece is being addressed in this partnership, which makes it feel a bit more real,” says Evan Deahl, engagement manager at Alton Aviation Consultancy. (According to Deahl, Alton has no business relationships with companies covered in this article.)

On March 22, Joby’s president of operations, Bonny Simi, told Bloomberg that “we’ll be able to launch in Dubai first.” She was less definitive when I asked her to confirm. “Joby has several routes to launching early commercial operations, including in the United States via obtaining our FAA type certificate and in the United Arab Emirates through our work with the GCAA, the local regulatory authority,” she wrote in an email. Simi added that “the government agencies of both Dubai and Abu Dhabi have consistently demonstrated their commitment to being world leaders in the adoption of this technology.”

Then in April, Archer announced what it called “multi-hundred-million-dollar investments” with the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, including building vertiports in the Emirates’ capital. Archer is also locating its international headquarters in Abu Dhabi and will manufacture planes in the country. Asked if this meant the UAE would be its debut country, Archer’s chief commercial officer, Nikhil Goel, didn’t quite answer, but said, “There’s no other city in the world where I’ve seen so much support and positive responses as I have in Abu Dhabi.”

The reticence to outright commit, or continue committing, to a UAE debut may be for fear of ruffling feathers. NASA technologist Mark Moore kicked off the air-taxi movement in 2009 with a design concept for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft that rise up like helicopters, then typically reconfigure into airplanes for more efficient flight. (A few, such as China’s EHang and Germany’s Volocopter, fly like quadcopters or helicopters, but tend to have shorter range.)

Challenges for U.S. Air Taxis

With NASA as the mother and the Federal Aviation Administration as a (mostly) enthusiastic stepfather, eVTOL has become a source of pride for the U.S. However, other countries may make it easier.

 “There are some key success factors for…rapid launch for vehicles in certain markets,” says Deahl. One is government funding, which Goel also calls out. “In order to launch air taxis in the UAE, you’re going to need, at the very least, half a billion dollars,” he says. “The UAE has made it incredibly economically attractive for us to do that without taking on any additional economic burden.”

 The Emirates may also show more regulatory flexibility, says Deahl, including perhaps allowing planes to fly experimentally before they are fully certified. In contrast, a June 2023 report from the Department of Transportation’s Inspector General called out the FAA for hampering eVTOL adoption due to “regulatory gaps and lack of consensus”—which the agency said are addressed in a new “blueprint” plan.

It’s also critical, says Deahl, to have customers willing to buy what he expects to be pricey tickets—despite Archer and Joby saying they will be in line with a high-end Uber ride. Goel says that Archer likely won’t subsidize rides to kickstart the business, unlike car service in the early days of Uber (where he worked on the company’s now-defunct air taxi program).

Then there’s public acceptance. “Particularly in the United States, there’s this concept of nimbyism,” says Deahl. He points to the Santa Monica airport closing due in part to noise and pollution complaints. EVTOLs are far cleaner and quieter than traditional planes and helicopters, but perceptions could be hard to overcome.

Other Promising Launch Sites

There’s plenty of competition beyond the UAE. The latest “Market Map“ by Unmanned Publications Ltd. lists 207 cities in 57 countries that are pursuing programs. “I actually expect the bulk of the urban air taxi market to be outside of the U.S.,” says Goel.

Joby’s international efforts focus on wealthy countries. “We are also laying the groundwork for service in the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Japan,” writes Simi. (Rival Volocopter aims to introduce flights in Paris around the Summer Olympics. It’s also targeting Rome, Osaka, and Neom in Saudi Arabia.)

Archer is looking farther. “I think India will be the largest urban air taxi market in the world,” says Goel. Archer is partnering with InterGlobe Enterprises, a travel and hospitality conglomerate that includes the country’s largest air carrier, IndiGo, with an agreement to buy up to 200 of Archer’s four-passenger Midnight aircraft for $1 billion. They will collaborate with other companies to build vertiports, train pilots, and operate planes.

U.S. eVTOL maker Eve is planning to launch with partner carrier Hunch in Bangalore in 2026 (and in San Francisco with United Airlines the same year).

Alton also expects competition from UAE neighbors Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman. “They are governments who are keen to be innovators and keen to take a more prominent space on the global stage,” says Deahl. With miles of desert or water between cities, their geographies make short-hop air travel appealing. (The four-passenger Joby S4 and Archer Midnight, for instance, can fly about 100 miles per charge.) Other areas with rough terrain, such as Malaysia, are also key markets, says Deahl.

In China, “The government is extremely supportive of developing what they call a ‘low altitude economy,’” says Deahl’s Singapore-based colleague, Alan Lim. In December 2023, China’s EHang became the first company to have a government-certified eVTOL—and an autonomous one, to boot. It also announced a partnership with Wings Logistics Hub to work towards certification in the UAE and sell up to 100 aircraft.

EHang’s two-person EH216-S quadcopter has a range of just 35 km (22 miles). “Its capabilities are limited to tourism and demonstration flights,” says Deahl, but he expects EHang’s VT-30 to be the key player once certified. A combination copter and plane (like most eVTOLs), this two-seater has a promised range of 300km (186 miles).

A Tight Race for First

The winning plane maker and country may depend on certification timetables, as most governments have similar guidelines. “I expect all of them will finish around the same time, plus or minus three to six months,” says Goel. But the first services will be modest. “We’re not going to go throw 200 aircrafts in New York City airspace,” he says. “It’s going to start with a dozen aircraft.”

It’s not the first planes that matter, but the first dense network of them, says Joshua Ng, another Alton analyst executive based in Singapore. “I think we need to think about, when is there going to be 100 eVTOL aircrafts flying anywhere?” he says.