Laura Marland was sitting at her computer in West Lafayette, Indiana, in 2015. Looking out the window at mature maple trees, she read about the polar ice caps melting in the Arctic. “That was alarming,” Marland says. Melting ice caps, triggered by climate change, lead to further global warming. She had already begun to feel this heat. In the past, Indiana experienced only seven days per year at 95 degrees or more. Indiana University predicts that in the coming decades, that number could be 38 to 51 days.
The threat of further increasing temperatures pushed Marland to leave West Lafayette for the Lake Superior town of Duluth, Minnesota, a decision she has never regretted. “As a [professional] photographer, I liked it when I first came because there’s always something to take a picture of,” Marland says.
In 2019, then-Harvard professor Jesse Keenan, who studies climate adaptation and the built environment, identified Duluth as a potential spot for people escaping extreme weather. He traveled to Duluth to pitch his idea for the city to market itself as “Climate-Proof Duluth.” News outlets picked up the idea, with a 2019 New York Times article popularizing the term “climate refuge.” (Keenan now teaches at Tulane University in flood-prone New Orleans.)
In the past five years, media and some climate researchers have called out a handful of cities as relatively safe from extreme weather events such as heat waves and hurricanes. So-called havens include Duluth; Ann Arbor, Michigan; Buffalo, New York; Burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin.
Other climate researchers doubt whether any place can be safe from harsher elements. More complete data is needed on why people move to these cities, whether for climate, jobs, or another reason. But that hasn’t stopped regional economic boosters from latching onto the haven idea to attract businesses and residents.
Meanwhile, cities are evaluating what their new climate-safe status means for the future of their population and economy.
Climate Change as an Economic Opportunity
Buffalo is used to people defining it by weather—usually cold winters and lots of snow—but lately, the conversation has turned to something else. In 2019, Mayor Byron Brown called Buffalo a “climate refuge” in his State of the City address. After that, the idea took on a life of its own, says Brendan Mehaffy, executive director of the Buffalo Mayor’s Office of Strategic Planning. The city hasn’t used “Climate Haven” in its marketing, but economic development agencies such as Invest Buffalo Niagara have.
The city is looking at translating environmental threats into an opportunity for residents, says Kelley St. John, who serves as climate action manager with Mehaffy. “We know the threats and the implications of climate change, and they’re certainly not things that would indicate you to be optimistic,” she says. “But we see there’s a lot of opportunity.”
Buffalo has already seen expanded workforce development and job opportunities, particularly in advanced manufacturing and health care. Mehaffy says being a climate haven could further boost the city’s growth.
He sees climate as a growing factor in people’s decision to live in Buffalo. For instance, about 3,000 people came to the city from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria hit the island in 2017, joining an already large Puerto Rican community. Some later returned to the island, but many stayed. Mehaffy’s office says this influx contributed to Buffalo’s first population growth in 70 years, as recorded in the 2020 census.
He adds that the city isn’t preparing differently because of its climate refuge status. It has already taken action to build the economy, revitalize its waterfront, and expand amenities such as parks and transit. But he says potential climate migration could quicken the pace of development.
Why are People Moving?
According to Forbes, nearly a third of Americans cited climate change as a reason to move in 2022, but there is little evidence that it has caused mass migration. Sociologists at Rice University studied thousands of homeowners who sold their extremely flood-prone homes to the government through a Federal Emergency Management Agency program. The 2023 study found that most people stayed within a 20-minute drive of their original homes.
But for those who consider climate change, are they pushed away by factors like wildfires in California or pulled towards new cities by their climate-haven reputation?
Susan Clark, assistant professor of environment and sustainability at (coincidentally) the University of Buffalo, says push and pull are complicated factors to measure in studies of migration. After a major weather disaster, she says there’s often an uptick in people considering moving to somewhere more secure. However, Clark says factors like jobs or proximity to family also drive these decisions.
She says Puerto Ricans who moved to Buffalo after Hurricane Maria did so because of the community that already existed in Western New York, although climate was a consideration among several.
“I have yet to hear anybody say that they moved to Buffalo based on climate factors,” she says. But she believes it could be a factor in picking between two otherwise equal cities. However, these places also get a boost from having more affordable housing than many other cities. “It’s the portfolio of these things that make places like Duluth and Buffalo attractive, and the climate haven narrative certainly helps.”
Florida with Less Hurricane Risk
Until recently, refuges have primarily been around the Great Lakes and Northeast. But now Florida has joined the mix. Eighty miles from downtown Orlando, the north-central Florida town of Ocala is the fourth fastest-growing metro area in the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Its population increased by more than 3% from 2022 to 2023.
Named the “Horse Capital of the World” for its large breeding and training industry, Ocala is developing another reputation—climate haven—due to a 2023 Wall Street Journal article. Based on a collaboration with software company Climate Alpha, the Journal reported that Ocala has the lowest risk of coastal flooding of any Florida city.
Where Temperatures Will Rise the Most by Midcentury
New residents are coming for a variety of reasons, says Kevin Sheilley, president and CEO of the Ocala Metro Chamber & Economic Partnership. Climate change is a popular one, something that Sheilley often hears when individuals contact the chamber of commerce for information on relocating.
The Partnership has noticed and has included Ocala’s climate haven status in presentations to potential manufacturing companies. Sheilley says they show greater interest when they hear that the city is less prone to hurricanes and flooding.
“You instantly see a click with people, like ‘Hey, that’s important,’” he says. “We see it as a key competitive advantage, and I think we’re going to continue to see that become more and more so.”
In the last two years, the Partnership has seen more businesses from South Florida moving to Ocala. Sheilley says lower costs and weather are driving these decisions. Businesses can also easily access South Florida, Orlando, Tampa, and other major cities.
Are Climate Havens Real?
The marketing around climate refuges is strong, but the concept is on shakier ground. Clark of the University of Buffalo says the term can mislead people into thinking that they can escape climate change. “You’re just switching the type of vulnerability,” she says. “We’re just vulnerable to different things.”
Although Buffalo doesn’t have problems with rising sea levels, other threats still exist. In Western New York, the average number of days above 85 degrees per year rose from 15 in 1970 to 23 in 2022. And summer wildfires in nearby Canada damage Buffalo’s air quality. At the other extreme, a major blizzard in 2022 killed 47 people. Anticipating future severe weather, Buffalo has hired leaders to manage emergency response and the city’s fleet of snowplows and emergency vehicles.
Six often-cited cities—Ann Arbor, Buffalo, Burlington, Duluth, Madison, and Minneapolis—will face some of the country’s most significant temperature increases in coming years, according to research from the University of Michigan. Warmer air can also hold higher quantities of water vapor, causing more frequent, intense, and longer-duration storms.
Marland says that the shift in weather patterns could reshape cities in ways that new residents didn’t bargain for. This past winter in Duluth was relatively warm and had less snowfall. December 2023 was the hottest December on record in almost 150 years.
“[People] might be coming up here for the scenic beauty of the Northland and find that climate change is altering or perhaps destroying a lot of that scenic beauty,” says Marland.
The marketing around climate refuges could raise awareness about these effects. Clark says it demonstrates how climate change is already affecting the U.S., not just places that seem far away, like the Arctic. It also shows how cities close to home are taking steps to prepare for more severe weather in the coming years.
Bracing for New Residents
As the possibility of an influx to havens grows, these cities must determine how best to prepare for the arrival of people and businesses that could strain their communities.
Climate gentrification has become a persistent concern in Duluth, which already has a housing shortage. People began talking when billionaire Kathy Cargill bought many homes for more than the assessed value in Duluth’s Park Point neighborhood, on the world’s largest freshwater sandbar.
She demolished many of the houses. Some in Duluth are now worried about the future of Park Point, where people of all incomes could enjoy Lake Superior, and how the city could change, according to reporting by MPR News.
“Residents seem to be very taken by surprise by that,” Marland says. “And I personally don’t think they should be taken by surprise because that’s what’s going to happen. A lot of wealthy people are going to buy property here.”
More housing is under development to accommodate new people in Ocala, to the consternation of some current residents. Locals who value open land and isolation from others have chafed at new development in once-rural Ocala, according to coverage by PBS station WUFT in Florida. In the five years leading up to 2022, the Ocala StarBanner reported more than 50,000 residential units were approved in the county.
Buffalo has an expanding need for affordable housing as more people arrive. Over half of the city’s tenants spend 30% or more of their income on rent. In 2023, Buffalo acknowledged the challenge by creating the Affordable Housing Task Force. The group released policy recommendations such as increasing penalties for violations of the city’s fair housing law and funding a study into the quality and habitability of housing stock.
Buffalo has 7,700 vacant lots, according to numbers reported by the Buffalo News in 2023. The city and local partners are constructing 12 single-family homes on one of them, a process officials are considering replicating throughout Buffalo. State Sen. Sean Ryan has proposed building 2,000 one- and two-family houses on vacant lots.
Clark says there’s more urgency in climate refuge cities to pursue sustainable development, such as affordable housing, because of the potential population growth.
“We haven’t seen a huge influx yet, and I think it’s a real opportunity we can plan for,” Clark says. “Although I don’t love the idea of a climate haven, I think if we carefully and strategically prepare, it could be a huge economic boost for Western New York.”
Climate change can be a rallying call for so-called haven cities. It’s a chance for them to capture population and economic growth, rethink their housing strategy, improve infrastructure, and ensure all residents have equal access to parks and other amenities.
