The American buzz is in transition. As cannabis dispensaries multiply and alcohol warnings mount, a growing number of consumers—especially younger ones—are rethinking what it means to relax, socialize, and celebrate. The battle for mindshare and market share between weed and whiskey is more than a matter of taste—it’s a shift in values, wellness priorities, and state-by-state policy.
Dry January Gains New Patrons
When a new federal report on the risks of alcohol came out mid-month, Americans participating in the sobriety challenge were likely celebrating their decision. The report, which found that drinking just one alcoholic beverage per day could increase the risk for liver cirrhosis, several kinds of cancer, and other injuries, sparked headlines and raised waves among the sober-curious.
According to the report, both men and women have a one in 1000 risk of dying from alcohol use if they consume more than seven drinks per week, and if they consume over nine drinks per week, that risk increases to one in 100. Although men and women who consumed one drink per day had a lower risk for ischemic stroke, they had a higher risk of liver cirrhosis, esophageal cancer, oral cancer, and injuries.
But your specific drinking patterns shape your risk—even infrequent occasions where you’re drinking high amounts of alcohol may eliminate the potential benefits of lower risk for ischemic stroke.
Additionally, women have a greater risk of alcohol-attributable cancer per drink consumed and a higher risk of liver cancer. However, women had a lower risk of diabetes mellitus when they drank one drink per day.
Also in January, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy called for cancer warnings on alcohol, similar to those that are already printed on cigarettes.
Overall, the month brought health warnings at a time when Americans were already prone to examine their alcohol intake and try sobriety. Consumer Researcher Civic Science found that in 2025, a record number of Americans were interested in Dry January. 54% of Americans 21+ who drink alcohol reported they were at least “somewhat likely” to participate in the month-long challenge, and Gen Z adults ages 25 to 29 were among the most likely to join.
Non-Alcoholic Alternatives Surge Over Holidays
Although Dry January sees non-alcoholic beverage sales surge, there are additional increases during other holidays, too. For example, non-alcoholic beverage also also surge on the Fourth of July and New Year’s Eve. Americans are looking for alcohol alternatives even during holidays where drinking is the norm.
One study found that nearly half of Americans want to drink less in 2025, and experiences like zero-proof bars, sober meetups, and even sober travel have popped up nationwide. The desire to stop drinking but maintain a social life has created niche micro-environments where businesses can thrive.
The Search for Alcohol Alternatives
With many Americans ditching or taking breaks from alcohol, there has been a market opportunity for alternatives. Drink giants like Heineken have created non-alcoholic versions of favorite beverages, and non-alcoholic spirits have also taken off in the celebrity entrepreneur space, with Bella Hadid’s Kin Euphorics, Blake Lively’s Betty Buzz, and Lewis Hamilton’s Almave.
In 2023, non-alcoholic beer, wine, and spirits sales reached $565 M. In 2024, sales surged to $823M, meaning it could be well on its way to a billion-dollar industry.
There is another obvious market opportunity for those peddling alcohol alternatives—cannabis. Along with non-alcoholic drinks, big brands have designed CBD and THC seltzers.
Young Americans Prefer Cannabis
Members of Gen Z may be putting down the liquor bottles, but they could be picking up the pen. Cannabis research company New Frontier Data found that 69% of consumers 18-24 reported that they preferred cannabis to alcohol, and numerous studies have found that younger Americans continue to drink less, with one Gallup poll finding that drinking use amongst Americans 18 to 34 fell from 72% to 62% over the past two decades.
And when it comes to Dry January, a survey from CivicScience found that 21% of participants were replacing alcohol with cannabis—and the biggest demographic to do so? Gen Z, with 21-24-year-olds making up 34% of that group, followed by 25-34-year-olds at 24%.
Gen Z’s preference for cannabis could indicate a larger shift toward consumer preference for marijuana over alcohol.
The Increasing Popularity of American Cannabis
Along with its growth in popularity, cannabis is also becoming legal across the United States, with nearly half of the states legalizing small amounts for adult recreational use, and an additional group of seven states decriminalizing it. In 39/50 states and Washington, D.C., medical cannabis is legal, and according to a report by Pew Research Center, 79% of Americans live in a county with at least one cannabis dispensary.
The United States is quickly becoming a cannabis-centered country, although federal legalization may not happen anytime soon.
Policy and Purchase
Although cannabis itself is popular, enforcing legal boundaries around regulated smoke shops has proven tricky. Unlicensed smoke shops tend to pop up when cannabis has been legalized, but vendors are still finding their feet and getting licensed. While they’re gradually shutting down, they’re still selling, and new illicit locations could be popping up in the meantime. For example, as of July 2024, the New York City Mayor’s office announced that over 750 illegal smoke shops have been shut down in New York City alone.
According to TimeOut, there may be up to 2,000 unlicensed dispensaries in New York State, with just 112 licensed dispensaries in New York State and 44 in New York City. Unlicensed dispensaries present dangerous consequences for consumers using cannabis—operating outside the legal system, they are not vetting their products the way legal shops are, meaning products are unregulated and potentially unsafe.
Osbert Orduña is the CEO of The Cannabis Place, a dispensary led by a Service Disabled Veteran, Minority Owned, and justice-involved team, which operates in New Jersey and New York. He told Worth that the illicit cannabis market is a troublesome obstacle for legal vendors.
Orduña emphasized the danger of illicit cannabis products, stating that regardless of the specific product, legal cannabis shops are held to a high standard of quality.
“[Even a dime bag has] all the required labelings, all the required information, and on top of that, there’s never a seed or a stem in there, because it’s not something that’s tolerated in the legal market.”
Unlike alcohol, however, cannabis retailers are still finding their footing when it comes to maintaining clientele while adhering to local law. After all, cannabis is still technically considered a Schedule I substance by the United States federal government. Although marijuana wasn’t banned federally until 1970 with the passage of the Controlled Substances Act, which classified marijuana as a Schedule I drug, the impact of that legislation is still being felt. With a federal ban, despite individual states legalizing cannabis, it’s still difficult for dispensaries and smoke shops to operate. For instance, social media and bank accounts could be subject to a shutdown at any point.
Orduña told Worth that in the past, The Cannabis Place has had both its Instagram and bank accounts shuttered.
And the instability of the market, due to legal restrictions, has caused even large cannabis companies to invest in other products, some turning to booze and hemp to make up for the lack of THC product sales where weed isn’t legalized.
Health Effects of Cannabis vs. Alcohol
Consumer Researcher Civic Science found that when it comes to health, those Americans who consider themselves ‘very’ healthy were the most likely to participate in Dry January this year. However, those who considered themselves ‘not very’ healthy were the second-most likely. Either way, those at either end of the health spectrum seem to be interested in sobriety and what it can do for them.
However, there are also risks associated with cannabis. According to a 2024 study by the American Heart Association found daily marijuana use raises the risk of stroke by 42% and heart attack by 25%, even if the person has no prior history of heart disease and has never smoked or vaped tobacco. It’s also been linked to gastrointestinal problems and lung disease.
“According to a 2024 study by the American Heart Association, daily marijuana use raises the risk of stroke by 42% and heart attack by 25%.”
While the “California sober” lifestyle is calling out to many, it isn’t a one-stop shop for those seeking to improve their health. Those who are genetically predisposed to alcoholism may also be genetically predisposed to cannabis use disorder, meaning that switching from alcohol to weed isn’t recommended for those looking to wean off alcohol dependencies.
But for those simply seeking a healthier high, they may want to seek out legal storefronts.
Who Will Dominate the Market?
The question is whether there is room for both cannabis and alcohol, or whether Americans are slowly migrating toward a “California sober” lifestyle. With the liquor industry accounting for a $250 billion USD, even a small dip into the overall market could account for a skyrocketing opportunity for investors.
According to cannabis tech company FlowHub, the cannabis industry is expected to reach $45 billion USD in 2025.
Will Marijuana Be Federally Legalized in 2025?
With a new president and administration, the federal future of weed is yet to be determined. While the majority of Americans support legalizing cannabis, it’s ultimately up to legislative action. According to the Pew Research Center, an overwhelming majority of Americans (88%) believe that marijuana should be legalized for either medicinal or recreational use. 57% of Americans believe it should be legalized for both medicinal and recreational use.
In May of 2024, the Biden Administration’s Department of Justice proposed reclassifying marijuana from a Schedule I substance to a Schedule III substance, which would have signified the drug having a “moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.”
But with Donald Trump in charge, it’s hard to say where this initiative will go next. While on the campaign trail in September 2024, Trump indicated he was in favor of rescheduling the substance, but he’s been quiet on this front since taking office in January.
Although the Trump administration doesn’t appear to be prioritizing legalization, there are several measures moving through Congress which would impact the cannabis industry, including the SAFE Banking Act, which would give cannabis businesses better access to financial services; the States Reform Act, which would deschedule cannabis among other reforms; and the Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States 2.0 Act, which would amend the Controlled Substances Act to omit cannabis produced in and sold in compliance with state law.
Trump’s tariffs are also estimated to raise prices for cannabis users, which could slow down the overall market, according to Reuters. Since cannabis is still a state issue, the impact will differ depending on the location—in New York, all cannabis is required to be sold in-state. But according to The New York Times, goods required in the process, like infrastructure, metal tins for pre-rolled joints, and vape hardware, will all see price increases.
The Future of the Buzz
While people may ultimately turn to alcohol and cannabis for different reasons, one question remains: How will people kick back in the future? According to Orduña, cannabis is customizable in a way that alcohol just isn’t.
Orduña says, “Some people [will say], ‘I’m having trouble sleeping, which are the products that help me sleep?’ ‘I don’t like to smoke. I don’t like to vape. So what can you recommend?’ Okay, well, here we have these beverages. We have these edibles. We have these tinctures […] and then our budtenders will speak to them about the ease of use of the different products, etc. The time set of effect, the duration of effect.”
He emphasized that customers can even find products with low to no calories, which isn’t possible with alcohol.
Alcohol isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. Although sober experiences are becoming gradually more available, much of Americans’ social lives revolves around drinking. There may not be one trend to designate the future of the American buzz, the desire for new experiences is likely to lead the way.
