It could be the mountain air, the remote location, or that everyone here is on a corporate expense account, but it is hard to find a pessimist in Davos. The abundance of free drinks also plays a role. AI once again dominates the conversation this year, and after talking to more than 50 executives, I only found one who was not a self-proclaimed “AI optimist.” That executive works for an accounting firm, and he told me, “short term, this is going to be brutal.”
He was the exception. Everyone else I have spoken to is giddy with anticipation. The sentiments flying about the room are overwhelmingly positive as AI is described as a game-changer and the ultimate democratizing force. With just a phone, anyone can access ChatGPT, and tasks that once took weeks, like answering RFPs, can now be completed in a day.
The Numbers Behind AI’s Rise
The numbers are impressive. According to a recent report by McKinsey, AI could contribute up to $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030, driven by increased productivity and new market opportunities. The World Economic Forum echoed these findings at this year’s meeting, projecting that AI will create 97 million new jobs by 2025 while displacing 85 million existing ones. These figures were used repeatedly by executives to justify their optimism. However, the same McKinsey report highlights a crucial caveat: the benefits of AI adoption are likely to be concentrated in high-skill, high-wage industries, leaving lower-skill workers and the middle class vulnerable.
Consider the infrastructure driving today’s AI revolution. Training and deploying advanced AI models require vast computational resources, which are largely controlled by a few major companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. OpenAI, often hailed as a leader in democratizing AI, is closely integrated with Microsoft’s Azure platform. The cost of training cutting-edge models like GPT-4 runs into tens of millions of dollars, placing these capabilities well beyond the reach of startups and independent researchers. As a result, the power to shape AI’s future remains concentrated in the hands of a few.
The financial gains reflect this consolidation. Alphabet’s Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services, and Microsoft Azure—the trifecta of cloud computing—are projected to grow their combined revenue by over 20% annually through 2027, primarily driven by demand for AI services. Meanwhile, these companies’ shareholders stand to reap the rewards of AI-driven efficiency gains. For example, a Goldman Sachs analysis predicts AI could boost global corporate profits by 15% over the next decade. However, will these productivity gains translate into higher wages or better job security for workers? Will a three-day work week mean a 40% pay cut? Ask yourself, what would your board do?
The Political Context
These trends are unfolding against political instability across much of the Western world. In the UK, Italy, France, Germany, and the United States, electoral shifts have revealed deep dissatisfaction among voters, driven in part by economic inequality. Populist movements have gained traction by exploiting fears of job loss and economic marginalization—issues that AI is poised to exacerbate if left unchecked.
The debate over AI’s impact on jobs has entered the political arena in the United States. In Europe, governments are grappling with how to regulate AI in ways that protect workers while encouraging innovation. Yet, despite these challenges, the tone at Davos remained persistently upbeat.
This optimism reflects a troubling disconnect, probably unsurprising given the scene and setting. While executives highlight AI’s potential to “level the playing field,” their actions often tell a different story. Investments are overwhelmingly focused on efficiency and cost reduction rather than on workforce development or equitable wealth distribution. AI’s benefits are concentrated among those who already hold power—corporations, executives, and investors—leaving workers and the middle class increasingly vulnerable.
Look at how AI is being used in your own company. I bet your C-Suite executives are using AI tools to write marketing copy, respond to RFPs, design logos, build presentations, write HR documentation, and even build company roadmaps. They may not be very good, but it is cheaper than staffing up?
All the companies here and Davos are bullish on growth. No one has suggested growing their workforce to do it.
As we look to the future, the question is not whether AI will transform society—it will. The real question is: who will benefit, and at whose expense? The answers will depend on the choices we make today. At Davos, the conversation was almost exclusively about the unprecedented potential of AI. But there will be a cost. And it won’t be paid by Davos attendees.
