The first Japanese REITs, known as J-REITs, listed in 2001; by
the end of last year, there were 28 of them trading, with a combined market
capitalization of 32 trillion yen. The J-REITs sector has performed well,
delivering close to 20 percent per annum, according to JPMorgan, although the
bank’s analysts warn not to expect these heady rates to persist. In light of its recent rally, some investors feel the Japanese
market is now too pricey. But Pralle believes it will hold up. "Time will tell
if those REITs are overvalued," he says. "It depends on whether or not the cash
flows from the underlying properties that the REITs hold will improve. My view
is they will, because we’re seeing an improvement in fundamentals in Japanese
real estate." Hong Kong listed its first REIT, the Link
REIT, last November. It now manages 180 formerly government-owned properties,
mainly shopping malls and parking lots, and is the world’s largest REIT, with
assets of around $3.3 billion. PricewaterhouseCoopers expects its dividend yield
this year to be 5.53 percent. The Hong Kong market as a whole is still in the
early stages of development, but investors hope that it will provide a gateway
to one of the largest emerging property markets in the world. "There are people
talking about or working on REITs who will buy properties in China," Blank says. There’s not always a clear rules-of-law policy pursued in
China. | GE Real Estate is already making direct investments in
Chinese property,
announcing in late March that it was putting $20 million into a residential
development fund. Pralle warns that one of the biggest risks is the legal
uncertainty. "There’s not always a clear rules-of-law policy pursued,
particularly by some of the municipal governments, and that makes investing in
the Chinese real estate market more risky than investing in a developed market,"
he notes.GE Real Estate is also making direct investments in
India; it has taken
strategic stakes in IT parks in Bangalore and Hyderabad. India’s real estate
market is booming, but to date there have been no REITs listed, although there
are rumors they will debut in the near future. Some experts warn that the Indian
market is overheated. Peter Hobbs, Deutsche Bank’s London-based global head of
real estate and infrastructure research, warns: "In certain emerging markets,
such as India, you have many private individuals buying real estate, and as
these don’t tend to be the most rational investors, pricing has become very
aggressive, such that the risk premium has become too narrow for such
markets." Australia has a highly developed REITs
market, although the instruments are known there as Listed Property Trusts
(LPTs). Hobbs says the fundamentals of the Australian property market look good,
but it is difficult to get a single-country exposure to that market because
Australian REIT managers often assemble international portfolios. "Australian
LPTs have been very aggressive in buying in America, and now they are switching
their attention to Europe," Hobbs says. "Some LPTs have up to 100 percent of
their assets outside Australia, and the LPT market in aggregate has about 35
percent of its assets outside the country." The Singapore REITs market, which debuted in 2002 with the launch of CapitalMall
Trust, is also expanding rapidly. An example of a well-known REIT in the region
is Ascendas, the first business and industrial property REIT to list in the
country. By the end of last year, it held 59 properties valued at S$2.7 billion
(US$1.7 billion). REITs are also available in Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.
Central and South America These REIT markets remain less developed than other regions. The closest
thing to a REIT structure in South America is Brazil’s Fundos de Investimento Imobiliário, but
these are mainly funded with private capital. Costa Rica has a structure known as a real estate
investment fund, which is similar to a REIT. According to an analysis by San
José, Costa Rica-based Alejandro Antillon and Cristian Roberts of the Pacheco
Coto law firm, Costa Rica’s solid economic growth has attracted investment in
its real estate sector, which should boost the value of these funds. Meanwhile,
Mexico has recently
established a regulatory framework for REITs.
Art by John Webber.
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