|
|
 |
|
| World Marketplace |
To the Shores of Tripoli
Diederik Vandewalle
07/01/2005
|
In words unimaginable a few years ago, Ghanem
asked, in effect, for a constitution. His opponents responded, in blistering
language, that there is no need for separation of power or for a constitution in
Libya because the country’s Law Number 1—the basis for “revolutionary
authority”—and Colonel Qadhafi are the only political references allowed in
Libya. When Qadhafi attended the meeting toward its conclusion, he cautiously
supported Ghanem in his reform efforts but left untouched the larger questions
the prime minister had raised. For now—despite Ghanem’s candid demands at
the GPC—the possibility of political reform that would strengthen the economic
reforms remains remote.
In principle at least, Libya has two options for
dealing with its ongoing dilemmas. It can pursue economic liberalization in
earnest, giving increasing and real voice to the country’s reformers, fully
realizing that such a pursuit will inevitably lead to further demands for
accountability, transparency and perhaps greater political voice among the
population.
Alternatively, it can pursue a type of state-led market
reform—like that in neighboring Tunisia or Egypt—that leads to a highly
authoritarian government, relying on cooperation between the state and a number
of business coalitions. It would be guarded by the country’s own security
organizations and fueled by oil. In this sadly familiar—and highly
likely—scenario, Libya’s current economic reforms would, as in many other oil
exporting nations, proceed haltingly and incompletely, subject above all to the
political expediency of regime survival.
Diederik Vandewalle, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth
College, focuses on development in the Middle East and North Africa.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
