Just before I sat down to write
this, I logged on to Amazon Computer Services, where the earth’s largest
bookstore offers a rather confusing array of troubleshooting services for PC
hardware. I was one of exactly three guests online. We trust Amazon as a
book-buying site, and that has led us to trust its other retail products, as
well as its marketing services that guarantee that your credit card goes through
a secure site when you buy from lesser-known merchants. But what does Amazon
have to do with computer-support services that pit it against the likes of
HP?
In the past few years, a number of technology companies have
veered into new lines of business, either through acquisitions or startup
divisions, that seem like an irrationally exuberant way to capitalize on their
existing name recognition or ride the latest trend in technology.
You build a company and sell it to an existing company that
overvalues it. | Not that this kind of diversification is always a terrible
idea. It often works well during transition periods in technology, when there
are gaps and unserved market needs. For example, the acoustic architecture firm
Bolt, Beranek and Newman, now BBN Technologies and best known for its work on
Avery Fisher Hall at Lincoln Center, became a powerful player in networking and
timesharing in 1970—when the market was wide open. Similarly, Boeing’s computer
services division flourished at the same time.
Today consumers have no particular need for another player in
computer services, and Amazon does not appear to have a competitive advantage in
this area. It makes about as much sense as Ben & Jerry’s saying: "Everyone
knows our name and loves our ice cream, so let’s sell books and compete with
Amazon."
Highly compatible offshoots have also emerged in more recent
years. Apple iTunes has interacted wonderfully with its iPod and its computer
line more generally, and many expect the new iPhone to be a best seller in
consumer electronics. The company builds on this so effectively that it has even
changed its name, removing the word "computer."
But, just as in the late 1990s when we suffered IPO commerce
masquerading as e-commerce—count the eyeballs, make up a projected five-year
cash flow, then flip the company at an incredible price-hallucination
ratio—today we have what I call "acquisition commerce." In this case, you build
a company and sell it to an existing company that overvalues it, again using
price-hallucination ratios, based on future synergies with the acquirer’s core
business.
Google’s $1.7 billion acquisition of YouTube is the most
expensive example. Although it’s too early to see any financial returns,
YouTube has already run into difficulty involving content and litigation and,
more dire, shows no serious prospects for revenue. Similarly, Rupert Murdoch’s
News Corp. got into the hottest new technology with its $580 million acquisition
of the social-networking site MySpace. This could still turn out to be a lucky
lottery ticket, but, more likely, both acquirers will find that they cannot
easily turn social-networking sites into ad-revenue producers.
The realization that large media companies must find
alternatives to traditional advertising served as the basis for both the YouTube
and MySpace transactions. But the traditional advertising community is almost
delusional in the way it has embraced the rationale offered for the acquisition
of MySpace. A survey by the American Marketing Association posited that the
popular social-networking websites were leaving billions of dollars on the table
because although the age groups that visit Facebook, MySpace and YouTube
frequently make purchases online, those websites do not offer shopping. Much of
the basis for the survey’s influence seems to be that just more than half of the
respondents said they would be willing to consider shopping tips from these
sites. But so far the track record of online advertising indicates that users
are not interested in having paid messages pushed at them—regardless of the
medium.
I cannot buy stuff online when I check stock prices at the New
York Stock Exchange’s site, yet many of us who buy stocks also make purchases
online. Does this suggest that the NYSE should attempt to sell me golf clubs on
its website? How many investors would be naïve enough to see that as an obvious
extension of a powerful brand?
Eric Clemons is a professor of operations and information
management at the Wharton School at the University of
Pennsylvania.
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