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| Opportunities & Exposures: Policy |
Slouching Toward Baghdad
Daniel Yankelovich
01/01/2006
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Most of the time, the president and other leaders are free to ignore public
opinion on U.S. foreign policy. This is because, unlike domestic policy, the
public gives our leaders great latitude on foreign policy, feeling it is a
subject best left to experts.
On some occasions, however, public opinion
reaches a tipping point. When this happens, politicians ignore it at their own
peril. A number of recent polls suggest that public opinion on the war in Iraq
may be reaching such a juncture.
This is certainly true of Public Agenda’s
new Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index (CFPI), which we recently launched
in cooperation with Foreign Affairs magazine. Its purpose is to reveal how
Americans’ views on foreign policy evolve over time. We want to track important
tipping points and alert leaders to foreign policy issues where the public has
grown anxious and urgent in its convictions.
The first CFPI poll shows the
country manifesting an anxious and urgent state of mind about the war in Iraq
and our relations with the Islamic world.
On any one issue there are three
conditions to consider when evaluating a tipping point: the size of the public
majority demanding action; their intensity of conviction; and whether or not
they feel the government can do anything about it. At present, the one issue
that comes closest to meeting all three criteria is Iraq and our dealings with
Muslim nations. When respondents were asked in an open-ended question to name
the most important international problem facing the country, the answers that
came up most often were the Iraqi war and terrorism, followed by concern that
other countries hold a negative view of the U.S.
What was particularly
striking is the number of Americans who believe the Iraqi war plays an important
role in stimulating hatred and mistrust of the U.S. in other nations. This
concern was expressed in various ways. Nearly three out of four respondents said
they worry (a lot or somewhat) that there may be growing hatred of the U.S. in
Muslim countries, and an equally large majority said they worry that the U.S.
may be losing the trust and friendship of people in other countries, including
those that have been allies.
The neo-conservatives in the Bush administration
brought us into the war on the platform that it does not matter if we are liked
abroad as long as we are respected. In a half-century of conducting public
opinion surveys, however, I have found that the majority of Americans
unwaveringly believe it is important that others like us.
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